THE 100 SEAT AIRPLANE

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The 100 Seat Airplane

People are waiting in line to board a 100-seat airplane. Steve is the first person in the line. He gets on the plane but suddenly can't remember what his seat number is, so he picks a seat at random. After that, each person who gets on the plane sits in their assigned seat if it's available, otherwise they will choose an open seat at random to sit in.

The flight is full and you are last in line. What is the probability that you get to sit in your assigned seat?
Hint: You don't need to use complex math to solve this riddle. Consider these two questions: What happens if somebody sits in your seat? What happens if somebody sits in Steve's assigned seat?
The correct answer is 1/2.

The chase that the first person in line takes your seat is equal to the chance that he takes his own seat. If he takes his own seat initially then you have a 100% chance of sitting in your seat, if he takes your seat you have a 0 percent chance. Now after the first person has picked a seat, the second person will enter the plan and, if the first person has sat in his seat, he will pick randomly, and again, the chance that he picks your seat is equal to the chance he picks someone your seat. The motion will continue until someone sits in the first persons seat, at this point the remaining people standing in line which each be able to sit in their own seats. Well how does that probability look in equation form? (2/100) * 50% + (98/100) * ( (2/98) * 50% + (96/98) * ( (2/96) * (50%) +... (2/2) * (50%) ) ) This expansion reduces to 1/2.
An easy way to see this is trying the problem with a 3 or 4 person scenario (pretend its a car). Both scenarios have probabilities of 1/2.
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