Under The Cup Riddle
You decide to play a game with your friend where your friend places a coin under one of three cups. Your friend would then switch the positions of two of the cups several times so that the coin under one of the cups moves with the cup it is under. You would then select the cup that you think the coin is under. If you won, you would receive the coin, but if you lost, you would have to pay.
As the game starts, you realise that you are really tired, and you don't focus very well on the moving of the cups. When your friend stops moving the cups and asks you where the coin is, you only remember a few things:
He put the coin in the rightmost cup at the start.
He switched two of the cups 3 times.
The first time he switched two of the cups, the rightmost one was switched with another.
The second time he switched two of the cups, the rightmost one was not touched.
The third and last time he switched two of the cups, the rightmost one was switched with another.
You don't want to end up paying your friend, so, using your head, you try to work out which cup is most likely to hold the coin, using the information you remember.
Which cup is most likely to hold the coin?
As the game starts, you realise that you are really tired, and you don't focus very well on the moving of the cups. When your friend stops moving the cups and asks you where the coin is, you only remember a few things:
He put the coin in the rightmost cup at the start.
He switched two of the cups 3 times.
The first time he switched two of the cups, the rightmost one was switched with another.
The second time he switched two of the cups, the rightmost one was not touched.
The third and last time he switched two of the cups, the rightmost one was switched with another.
You don't want to end up paying your friend, so, using your head, you try to work out which cup is most likely to hold the coin, using the information you remember.
Which cup is most likely to hold the coin?
Hint: Write down the possibilities. Remember that there are only three cups, so if the rightmost cup wasn't touched...
The rightmost cup.
The rightmost cup has a half chance of holding the coin, and the other cups have a quarter chance.
Pretend that Os represent cups, and Q represents the cup with the coin.
The game starts like this:
OOQ
Then your friend switches the rightmost cup with another, giving two possibilities, with equal chance:
OQO
QOO
Your friend then moves the cups again, but doesn't touch the rightmost cup. The only switch possible is with the leftmost cup and the middle cup. This gives two possibilities with equal chance:
QOO
OQO
Lastly, your friend switches the rightmost cup with another cup. If the first possibility shown above was true, there would be two possibilities, with equal chance:
OOQ
QOO
If the second possibility shown above (In the second switch) was true, there would be two possibilities with equal chance:
OOQ
OQO
This means there are four possibilities altogether, with equal chance:
OOQ
QOO
OOQ
OQO
This means each possibility equals to a quarter chance, and because there are two possibilities with the rightmost cup having the coin, there is a half chance that the coin is there. Did you answer this riddle correctly?
YES NO
The rightmost cup has a half chance of holding the coin, and the other cups have a quarter chance.
Pretend that Os represent cups, and Q represents the cup with the coin.
The game starts like this:
OOQ
Then your friend switches the rightmost cup with another, giving two possibilities, with equal chance:
OQO
QOO
Your friend then moves the cups again, but doesn't touch the rightmost cup. The only switch possible is with the leftmost cup and the middle cup. This gives two possibilities with equal chance:
QOO
OQO
Lastly, your friend switches the rightmost cup with another cup. If the first possibility shown above was true, there would be two possibilities, with equal chance:
OOQ
QOO
If the second possibility shown above (In the second switch) was true, there would be two possibilities with equal chance:
OOQ
OQO
This means there are four possibilities altogether, with equal chance:
OOQ
QOO
OOQ
OQO
This means each possibility equals to a quarter chance, and because there are two possibilities with the rightmost cup having the coin, there is a half chance that the coin is there. Did you answer this riddle correctly?
YES NO
The Coin Toss Riddle
You are in a bar having a drink with an old friend when he proposes a wager.
"Want to play a game?" he asks.
"Sure, why not?" you reply.
"Ok, here's how it works. You choose three possible outcomes of a coin toss, either HHH, TTT, HHT or whatever. I will do likewise. I will then start flipping the coin continuously until either one of our combinations comes up. The person whose combination comes up first is the winner. And to prove I'm not the cheating little weasel you're always making me out to be, I'll even let you go first so you have more combinations to choose from. So how about it? Is $10.00 a fair bet?"
You know that your friend is a skilled trickster and usually has a trick or two up his sleeve but maybe he's being honest this time. Maybe this is a fair bet. While you try and think of which combination is most likely to come up first, you suddenly hit upon a strategy which will be immensely beneficial to you. What is it?
"Want to play a game?" he asks.
"Sure, why not?" you reply.
"Ok, here's how it works. You choose three possible outcomes of a coin toss, either HHH, TTT, HHT or whatever. I will do likewise. I will then start flipping the coin continuously until either one of our combinations comes up. The person whose combination comes up first is the winner. And to prove I'm not the cheating little weasel you're always making me out to be, I'll even let you go first so you have more combinations to choose from. So how about it? Is $10.00 a fair bet?"
You know that your friend is a skilled trickster and usually has a trick or two up his sleeve but maybe he's being honest this time. Maybe this is a fair bet. While you try and think of which combination is most likely to come up first, you suddenly hit upon a strategy which will be immensely beneficial to you. What is it?
Hint: Think what would be most likely to happen if you chose HHH, would this be a good decision?
The answer is to let your friend go first. This puzzle is based on an old game/scam called Penny Ante. No matter what you picked, your friend would be able to come up with a combination which would be more likely to beat yours. For example, if you were to choose HHH, then unless HHH was the first combination to come up you would eventually lose since as soon as a Tails came up, the combination THH would inevitably come up before HHH. The basic formula you can use for working out which combination you should choose is as follows. Simply take his combination (eg. HHT) take the last term in his combination, put it at the front (in this case making THH) and your combination will be more likely to come up first. Try it on your friends! Did you answer this riddle correctly?
YES NO
YES NO
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